Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Rory Fitzpatrick: 5th in All-Star Voting

The NHL today released an update on Western Conference All-Star voting, and lo and behold, our very own Rory Fitzpatrick has moved up to 5th place among defensemen with 144,819 votes. He only trails Scott Niedermayer (329,657 votes), Nicklas Lidstrom (317,373), Chris Pronger (219,372) and Dion Phaneuf (208,945).


(BTW: For the next month until All-Star voting is over, I've decided to replace the weekly poll on the side bar with a Rory-meter.)

Anyway, I did some simple math tonight, not to discourage the folks behind the campaign, but to show how much more work needs to be done to make this happen.

Assuming regular voters are voting 10x each for Niedermayer and Lidstrom, then there are approximately 33,000 voters for Niedermayer and 32,000 voters for Lidstrom; assuming Rory voters are voting 50x each, then there are approximately 2,900 voters for Fitzpatrick.

At the current pace, Rory has to gain, weekly, 46,210 votes on Niedermayer and 43,139 votes on Lidstrom. If the number of Niedermayer and Lidstrom votes and voters remain the same for the remainder of the voting - for four more weeks - Rory voters will have to cast almost 200,000 votes a week (69 per voter) for him to catch up.

Now, if the number of Niedermayer or Lidstrom votes or voters increase, Rory voters will obviously have a larger hill to climb. For example, if even half of Niedermayer or Lidstrom voters (16,000 voters) start stuffing ballots as well and increase their votes from 10x to 25x weekly, Rory will need 600,000 votes per week (207 per voter) to catch up. If those 16,000 voters increase their votes to 50x weekly, Rory will need 1,000,000 votes per week to catch up (345 per voter).

Again, these are conservative estimates (read: I'm partly pulling 'em out of my ass). I know some Niedermayer and Lidstrom voters aren't voting 10x per week, but on the flip side, I know some Rory voters are voting way more than 50x per week. It's very likely that there are more than 32,000-33,000 regular voters and less than 2,900 Rory voters. That in mind, it doesn't make the task impossible, maybe just a bit harder.

I'm still amazed at how far this campaign has gone. Last week, Rory's Canucks teammates sported "Vote For Rory" t-shirts to practice. Sportsnet, TSN, CBC and a few bloggers have all done pieces on this now as well. Steve Schmid and crew have done a great job organizing this so far. I really hope they pull it off.

Comments/Questions: Feel free to post in the comments section or email me at gocanucksgo10 (at) hotmail (dot) com.

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posted by J.J. Guerrero, 9:05 PM


At December 06, 2006 10:21 PM, Blogger Loxy said...

It's really too bad that Camp Rory hadn't set their sights on a forward. I think the chances would've been better to get them in the top 3.

At December 06, 2006 11:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm voting for Jarko Ruuttu in the Eastern Conference as well. It doesn't take any additional time.

At December 07, 2006 5:56 AM, Blogger hoopsjunky said...

^ - Rory and Ruutu? Can you imagine?

Loxy - I would've loved to see Alex Burrows in the All-Star game. haha!

At December 08, 2006 9:41 AM, Blogger Miss 604 said...

Saw an interview with Rory last night - just getting his comments on the whole situation, he didn't seem too enthused but wasn't upset about it at all. I overhead someone say they're going to sell "Vote for Rory" shirts at Authentix? Could have been a joke but who knows!

At December 08, 2006 10:26 PM, Blogger hoopsjunky said...

It's not a joke. I bought one tonight. Thinking of wearing it to the Orca Bay staff party tomorrow night :p


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