Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Magic Number Time

I'll be the first to admit that at the beginning of the season, I wasn't sure if the Canucks had what it takes to make the playoffs, let alone challenge for Lord Stanley's Cup. Yet here we are now, with only 20+ games left in the season, two weeks from the trade deadline, and indeed talking postseason and whether or not they should trade for Peter Forsberg to make a serious run at winning it all. (I'll post my thoughts on Forsberg, Brad Stuart and Ladislav Nagy tonight or tomorrow morning.) As of today, they have 66 points and are in third seed in the West by virtue of also being first in the Northwest Division.

As you'll notice, I've added a banner to keep track of the Canucks' magic number against the other teams they're fighting for a playoff spot with. Unless the teams above them go into a major slump or teams waaay below them go on a big run, it's likely that the last four playoff spots will go to four of the Canucks, Dallas Stars, Calgary Flames, Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche. For the Canucks to make the playoffs, they will have to shrink their magic number against at least two of the other teams to zero.

How does this work:

Basically, each point the Canucks earn or each point the other teams lose will shrink the magic number. For example, if the Canucks beat the Minnesota Wild in regulation time tomorrow, they will shrink their magic number against the Wild by four points (ie. Canucks gain two points and the Wild lose two). If the Canucks beat the Wild in overtime or the shootout, they will shrink their magic number against them by three points (the Wild only lose one point because they gain the loser point).

* - Credit to a poster on the canucks.com forum, MaximAfinogenov, for the idea behind the graphic.

[update: 03/03/07, 7:34 AM]:

With the Dallas Stars on a roll (6-1-3 in their last 10 games) and the San Jose Sharks somewhat on a slump (3-6-1), I've updated the banner to remove the Stars and include the Sharks.

[update: 03/03/07, 7:46 AM]:

For what it's worth, as of today, any combination of 11 Canucks wins and Colorado losses will eliminate the Avalanche. Same thing with the Oilers.

[update: 03/04/07, 7:57 AM]:

Barring a major collapse, it's not likely the Canucks will be able eliminate the Stars, Sharks, Flames and Wild so I'm taking them off the banner.

Starting today, I'll only update the Canucks' magic numbers against the Avalanche, Oilers and the streaking Blues. The new banner is simple to read - as soon as the magic number against all three of these teams get to zero, the Canucks are guaranteed a spot in the postseason.

Comments/Questions: Feel free to post in the comments section or email me at gocanucksgo10 (at) hotmail (dot) com.

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posted by J.J. Guerrero, 5:50 AM


At February 23, 2007 10:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

keep up the good work, love the graphic representation of the magic numbers, go canucks go


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