Monday, April 03, 2006

Is Eight Enough?


James Mirtle has been saying for weeks now that 95 points may be what it takes for teams to make the Western Conference playoffs. Let's hope that's still the case.

After tonight's game, the Vancouver Canucks have 87 points and five games left on their schedule; they need eight points to get to the magic 95 mark. The Edmonton Oilers have 88 points and six games left; the San Jose Sharks have 85 points and eight games left. Except for the Canucks' two games next week against the Sharks, these three teams don't meet each other again for the rest of the season.

Scenario 1:

The Canucks win all five of their remaining games. As long as they win both games against the Sharks in regulation time, they end up with 97 points, and even if the Sharks win their other six games (also giving them 97 points), the Canucks win the tiebreaker by virtue of having more wins.

Scenario 2:

The Canucks win all five of their remaining games, but give up an extra point to the Sharks. The Canucks will end up with 97 points, but must hope that either the Oilers or the Sharks lose one of their remaining games to make the playoffs. If the Canucks give up two extra points to the Sharks, they must hope that either the Sharks or the Oilers lose at least one game in regulation time or lose a couple of games in the OT or shootout.

Scenario 3:

The Canucks win four of their remaining games to get to the magic 95 mark. To make the playoffs, the Canucks must hope that either the Sharks or the Oilers lose at least a couple of their remaining games.

For what it's worth, the Sharks' schedule include games against Colorado, Dallas and Anaheim, three of the hottest teams in the league. (I know they beat Dallas tonight, but the Stars are still 11-4-2 since the Olympic break.) The Oilers will finish their schedule with games against Detroit, Anaheim and Colorado.

What does this all mean? After tonight's loss to the Kings, the Canucks may very well need to run the table to guarantee themselves a post-season spot. And should the Canucks suffer even one more loss the rest of the way, they will no longer control their own destiny. They have four days off to decide that scenario 1 is the best scenario for them.

Comments/Questions: Feel free to post in the comments section or email me at gocanucksgo10 (at) hotmail (dot) com.

Technorati Tags: , , ,
posted by J.J. Guerrero, 10:54 PM


At April 04, 2006 12:11 AM, Blogger zombiefreak said...

If they play like the did tonight in any of the upcoming games(Auld being the only exception) I'm thinking you'll need more than three scenarios. That just make sme feel sick.

At April 04, 2006 1:02 AM, Blogger BALLS AND MY WORD™ said...

Those guys were shit tonite, a sad farce really ,they were even worse than their canucks pay per view station that showed a 7-1 oilers game till the very end ,completely fucking us over from the only hockey the nucks played tonite. Instead i got to watch 2 periods of figure skating and 11 shots on goal. how the fuck don't you get "UP" for a game of this magnitude.

At April 04, 2006 1:48 AM, Anonymous Kel said...

The fans in Van didn't see the whole game and regardless, they do tend to evalute the game by its result. The team didn't get outplayed, (if they did, not by much to deserve the criticism) They were outscored only. They couldn't captialize on their chances, which were probably more than those of both Minnesota games combined. The low shot total was partly due to their inability to shoot the puck on target, with many of their good scoring chances ended up in shots wide, and others hitting Garon who didn't really have to make any specular saves. The low shots hit his pads, the high shots went wide. I am not optimistic, but I am still hopefully and will keep watching.

At April 04, 2006 6:59 AM, Blogger hoopsjunky said...

I'm going to partially agree with you, Kel, in that I don't think they played as bad as in some of the games this season. They certainly played better than they did on Sunday and created more chances for themselves... but they also gave the Kings way too many chances of their own. They took way too many penalties - when we could finally watch the game, we saw Bertuzzi, Naslund and Morrison take consecutive penalties - and allowed the game-winning goal while shorthanded.

The unfortunate thing is, moral victories count for nothing at this time of the year. For most fans, they either win and solidify a playoff spot or they don't.

At April 04, 2006 9:18 AM, Anonymous treved said...

well, i was at the game for the second straight night. only $60 total for two games in the lower bowl, and i still feel ripped off!

the boys actually had good jump tonight. it was partly great LA pressure/defense and partly that they couldn't hit the damn net. there were so many chances where it was right there, and they just couldn't get it to the net.

i have to say, i've been very unimpressed with Bertuzzi on TV this season...now seeing him up close for 2 games, i changed my mind. he's AWFUL. the shifts he played i basically watched him and not the play. he glides EVERYWHERE, almost never picks up a check, throws lazy passes into the middle. this guy is an embarassment.

At April 04, 2006 5:46 PM, Blogger hoopsjunky said...

^ How'd you like the Staples Centre? Amazing arena, eh?

Bertuzzi looked like he was picking it up starting with the Edmonton series. Even up to the start of the Anaheim game, he was enjoying a good run. Last night, he played like he had most of the season - some really good shifts mixed in with some really bad ones. In a way, his play really epitomizes the Canucks' season.

At April 05, 2006 9:22 AM, Anonymous treved said...

See, I just don't agree that he mixes good play with bad. When's given the puck in a good position, he'll put in some effort to make a good play. More often than not he does.

But when he's away from the puck, or even when given a pass that isn't picture perfect, he gives a 25% effort and then gives up. Brutal.

I don't think he played well at all in Anaheim, btw.

Staples was a pretty good rink...surprisingly vocal fans given that it's LA, and they were giving out some sweet prizes (PS2, autographed guitar).

At April 06, 2006 1:21 AM, Blogger James Mirtle said...

At this point, the Canucks have to, have to win both games over San Jose — barring a total collapse from the Oilers. As it stands, San Jose can go just 4-3-0 and hit that 95 point mark, which puts Vancouver in a tough position.

Simply put, if the Canucks can't beat the red-hot Sharks twice in a row, they're done.


Post a Comment

<< Home